At $100/ton the Beneficiation Fee costs more per ton than the City of Minot Landfill's $51 gate rate. What the CSA returns instead is a Circular Royalty™ that exceeds the fee from Year 2, no City or County capital, and landfill airspace kept in reserve.
This report claims no disposal saving. The case rests on the royalty, zero public capital, landfill life and a manufacturing destination for the material.
The relationship structure. Under the Circular Supply Agreement (CSA), the community (City of Minot and Ward County, referred to here as the County) becomes the Feedstock Provider to a Carbotura Advanced Circular Manufacturing (ACM) facility. Manufacturing feedstock transfers to Carbotura under the CSA; the County pays the Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) and receives the Circular Royalty™. This is a supply arrangement, not a service contract.
Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee): $100/ton in Year 1, escalating 2.5%/yr — the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range. It is above the City of Minot Landfill's published MSW gate rate of $51/ton; no disposal saving is claimed.
Landfill intake — about 82,000 t/yr MSW plus about 68,800 t/yr inert, from six counties, estimated from a vendor case study of the City landfill (undated, written after the 2011 flood; retrieved 2026-11-10). To be confirmed at the Deployment Study.
Timeline — 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation for Phase Initial. No calendar dates are assumed. Phase Medium is a later step, when the County chooses.
Feedstock composition — ESTIMATED using Carbotura's standard municipal feedstock profile. Stream-specific characterization deferred to the Deployment Study.
§1Introduction and Decision Summary
§1.1What This Report Measures
This EIR quantifies the difference between two futures for the Minot area's manufacturing-feedstock streams over a 30-year horizon.
- State A (Without Carbotura). The current system continues. Material goes to the City of Minot Landfill at the published MSW gate rate ($51/ton, effective 2025-01-01). No royalty accrues, and landfill airspace is consumed at the current rate.
- State B (With Carbotura). A CSA with a 30-year term executes. ACM Phase Initial (100 TPD) reaches commercial operation 12–24 months from permit issuance. The Beneficiation Fee applies to committed tonnage in place of the gate rate. The Circular Royalty™ begins 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of each Beneficiation Fee payment, with the multiplier rising 1 percentage point per year. Phase Medium (200 TPD) is a later step, when the County chooses.
This report does not re-diagnose State A (the Waste Study's role) and does not re-define State B (Proposal's role). Its function is only the delta.
§1.2Decision Summary Table
| Item | Phase Initial (100 TPD) | Phase Medium (200 TPD) |
|---|---|---|
| Committed tonnage | 36,500 t/yr (≈45% of reported landfill MSW intake) | 73,000 t/yr (≈89%) |
| State A — same tonnage at the published $51/ton gate rate (Year 1) | $1.86M | $3.72M |
| State B — Beneficiation Fee paid, Year 1 | $3.65M | $7.29M |
| State B — Circular Royalty™ received, Year 2 | $4.38M | $8.76M |
| State B — 30-year gross: fee paid / royalty received | ~$160.2M / ~$207.3M | ~$320.5M / ~$414.7M |
| Carbotura capital (no City or County capital) | $75M | $130M ($75M first module + $55M) |
| Capital obligation to County | $0 | $0 |
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) | Standing condition. Both parties commit to the dewaste pathway; the endpoint is categorical (manufacturing NAICS 31–33, not waste-management NAICS 562xxx), and interim bridging authorities may apply. Manufacturing classification is actively pursued; nothing in the CSA is contingent on it. | |
| Key data gaps | Confirmation of landfill intake; stream-specific feedstock composition; candidate site (no parcel identified) | |
| Timing | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation for Phase Initial. Phase Medium when the County chooses. No calendar deadline. | |
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative.
$100/ton is above the City of Minot Landfill's published MSW gate rate of $51/ton (effective 2025-01-01, minotnd.gov). Carbotura claims no disposal saving. The State A gate-rate figures above are shown for comparison only; they are not netted against the fee or the royalty.
§1.3Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation
County fiscal effects (Circular Royalty™ receipts, Beneficiation Fee outflows) and regional economic impact (employment, tax base) are distinct categories. They are not interchangeable. Royalty receipts flow to the County treasury; regional economic impact flows to the broader Minot economy and does not appear on the County balance sheet. This EIR maintains that separation throughout.
§2State A Baseline
Source: Waste Study and published City and NDDEQ records. No new diagnosis introduced.
§2.1The Current System
| Item | Value | Source Type |
|---|---|---|
| City of Minot Landfill | Owned and operated by the City of Minot (Public Works, Solid Waste Management Division), 4450 37th Ave SW; NDDEQ permit 0272 | Verified |
| Reported intake | About 82,000 t/yr MSW plus about 68,800 t/yr inert, from six counties (estimate: vendor case study, post-2011, retrieved 2026-11-10) | Reported |
| Second permitted MSW landfill in Ward County | McDaniel Landfill Inc, Sawyer; NDDEQ permit 0326 | Verified |
| Residential collection | City Sanitation, twice weekly; carts $15 / $17.50 / $20 per month (35 / 65 / 95 gal) | Verified |
| Commercial collection terms | Not publicly documented; not stated here | Data gap |
| Population served | Ward County 68,233 (2025 estimate; 68,427 in 2024), down about 2.1% since 2020; City of Minot about 47,300; metro (Ward, McHenry, Renville) 75,694 | Verified |
§2.2State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Per-Ton | Annual, Phase Initial tonnage | Annual, Phase Medium tonnage | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published MSW gate rate (effective 2025-01-01) | $51 | $1.86M | $3.72M | Verified |
| Published inert gate rate (effective 2025-01-01) | $37 | — | — | Verified |
The gate rate is set by the City through its budget cycle. No escalation of the gate rate is modeled here, and no collection or haul cost is added to it. Commercial collection terms are not publicly documented and are not stated.
§2.3Landfill Life and Airspace
Cell 7 was approved in January 2023 at about $2.36M and is expected to provide roughly 5–7 years of capacity. In 2017 the City bought 320 acres for $4M to extend the site's life by 60 years or more (minotnd.gov). Committing 36,500 t/yr (Phase Initial) or 73,000 t/yr (Phase Medium) to manufacturing removes that tonnage from the landfill, so each cell lasts longer and future cell spending is pushed further out.
§2.4State A Environmental and Structural Position
- Carbon position (State A): Committed feedstock continues to landfill; methane from landfilled organics continues per the landfill's operating profile.
- PFAS: NDDEQ monitors PFAS, including landfill leachate since 2018. North Dakota has no state PFAS rule, and no regulatory cost step is modeled here.
- Rate-setting authority: The City sets the gate rate as a municipal budget decision.
- Capital exposure: Cell expansion is funded by the City and recovered through its rates.
§3State B Deployment Baseline
Source: Proposal EIR Input Block. No re-derivation.
§3.1Inherited Flags Declaration
Flags carried forward from the Proposal and Registry (disclosed above): landfill intake as reported, unconfirmed · feedstock composition ESTIMATED · Phase Medium at the County's election · no candidate parcel identified. Bismarck and Grand Forks partnerships are possible later additions under separate agreements; they are not sized and are not part of this report.
§3.2Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | ACM Modules | t/yr | Share of reported MSW intake | Carbotura CapEx | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 100 | 1 | 36,500 | ≈45% | $75M | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation |
| Phase Medium | 200 | 2 | 73,000 | ≈89% | $130M ($75M + $55M) | A later step, when the County chooses |
§3.3Economic Terms
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) Year 1 · Minot | $100 / ton — the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range |
| Fee escalator | 2.5% / year |
| Royalty multiplier Year 1 | 120% of that year's Beneficiation Fee |
| Multiplier escalator | +1 percentage point / year, applied to each year's escalated fee |
| Royalty timing | Begins 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of each Beneficiation Fee payment; rolling monthly |
| CSA term | 30 years from Phase Initial commercial operation |
| Capital obligation to counterparty | $0 (Carbotura-financed, owned and operated) |
§3.5Sequence
| Step | Timing |
|---|---|
| LOI / MOU → Term Sheet → CSA execution | Set by the County's decision process |
| Deployment Study and NDDEQ pre-application engagement | After CSA execution |
| Phase Initial commercial operation | 12–24 months from permit issuance |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of the first Beneficiation Fee payment |
| Phase Medium (200 TPD) | A later step, when the County chooses |
| CSA term end | 30 years from Phase Initial commercial operation |
§3.6Phase Delta Map
State A infrastructure (grey pin) and an indicative candidate ACM area (emerald square). No parcel has been identified; candidate areas would sit in Minot's M1 / M2 / M3 industrial zoning districts and remain unverified.
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§4Delta Analysis
§4.1Three Delta Components
The State A → State B transition produces three independent fiscal components, each quantified separately:
- Beneficiation Fee paid — applies to committed tonnage in place of the gate rate. At $100/ton it is higher per ton than the $51 gate rate; no saving is claimed.
- Circular Royalty™ received — a new inflow to the County treasury. $0 in Year 1 (13-month lag); rolling monthly thereafter; the multiplier rises 1 percentage point per year.
- Residual State A cost — gate-rate cost continuing before commercial operation and for tonnage not committed under the CSA (the inert stream and the remaining MSW).
"The Beneficiation Fee, the Circular Royalty™ and any residual gate-rate cost are quantified separately."
"At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis."
"Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of each Beneficiation Fee payment and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
§4.2Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table
| Phase | ACM Volume (t/yr) | State A gate rate / ton | Fee / ton, Year 1 | Royalty received / ton, Year 2 | Fee paid, Year 1 | Royalty received, Year 2 | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 36,500 | $51 | $100.00 | $120.00 | $3.65M | $4.38M | $0 |
| Phase Medium | 73,000 | $51 | $100.00 | $120.00 | $7.29M | $8.76M | $0 |
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative. Phase Medium figures assume 200 TPD from its own Year 1.
Pre-Royalty Period Separation
Year 1 and the period beginning 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of each Beneficiation Fee payment have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined.
- Year 1 (Pre-Royalty, Months 1–12): County pays the Beneficiation Fee at $100/ton. Receives $0 in Circular Royalty™.
- Royalty Ramp (Year 2, Months 13–24): Circular Royalty™ ramps to full run-rate on a rolling basis (120% × that year's fee, rising each year).
- Steady state (Year 3 onward): royalty received per ton stays above the fee per ton, and the gap widens every year.
§4.430-Year Gross Schedule — Phase Initial (100 TPD)
36,500 t/yr held constant. Fee and royalty are separate gross amounts.
| Year | Fee / ton | Royalty received / ton | Beneficiation Fee paid | Circular Royalty™ received |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100.00 | $0 (pre-royalty) | $3.65M | $0 |
| 2 | $102.50 | $120.00 | $3.74M | $4.38M |
| 3 | $105.06 | $124.02 | $3.83M | $4.53M |
| 5 | $110.38 | $132.46 | $4.03M | $4.83M |
| 10 | $124.89 | $155.96 | $4.56M | $5.69M |
| 15 | $141.30 | $183.34 | $5.16M | $6.69M |
| 20 | $159.87 | $215.23 | $5.84M | $7.86M |
| 25 | $180.87 | $252.34 | $6.60M | $9.21M |
| 30 | $204.64 | $295.48 | $7.47M | $10.79M |
| 30-year gross | ~$160.2M | ~$207.3M | ||
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative.
§4.530-Year Gross Schedule — Phase Medium (200 TPD)
73,000 t/yr held constant, counted from Phase Medium's own Year 1.
| Year | Fee / ton | Royalty received / ton | Beneficiation Fee paid | Circular Royalty™ received |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100.00 | $0 (pre-royalty) | $7.30M | $0 |
| 2 | $102.50 | $120.00 | $7.48M | $8.76M |
| 3 | $105.06 | $124.02 | $7.67M | $9.05M |
| 5 | $110.38 | $132.46 | $8.06M | $9.67M |
| 10 | $124.89 | $155.96 | $9.12M | $11.38M |
| 15 | $141.30 | $183.34 | $10.32M | $13.38M |
| 20 | $159.87 | $215.23 | $11.67M | $15.71M |
| 25 | $180.87 | $252.34 | $13.20M | $18.42M |
| 30 | $204.64 | $295.48 | $14.94M | $21.57M |
| 30-year gross | ~$320.5M | ~$414.7M | ||
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative.
§4.6Gross Fiscal Chart
Year-by-Year — Full Schedule, Both Phases (Years 1–30)
| Year | Fee / ton | Royalty received / ton | 100 TPD fee paid | 100 TPD royalty received | 200 TPD fee paid | 200 TPD royalty received |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100.00 | $0 (pre-royalty) | $3.65M | $0 | $7.30M | $0 |
| 2 | $102.50 | $120.00 | $3.74M | $4.38M | $7.48M | $8.76M |
| 3 | $105.06 | $124.02 | $3.83M | $4.53M | $7.67M | $9.05M |
| 4 | $107.69 | $128.18 | $3.93M | $4.68M | $7.86M | $9.36M |
| 5 | $110.38 | $132.46 | $4.03M | $4.83M | $8.06M | $9.67M |
| 6 | $113.14 | $136.87 | $4.13M | $5.00M | $8.26M | $9.99M |
| 7 | $115.97 | $141.43 | $4.23M | $5.16M | $8.47M | $10.32M |
| 8 | $118.87 | $146.12 | $4.34M | $5.33M | $8.68M | $10.67M |
| 9 | $121.84 | $150.96 | $4.45M | $5.51M | $8.89M | $11.02M |
| 10 | $124.89 | $155.96 | $4.56M | $5.69M | $9.12M | $11.38M |
| 11 | $128.01 | $161.10 | $4.67M | $5.88M | $9.34M | $11.76M |
| 12 | $131.21 | $166.41 | $4.79M | $6.07M | $9.58M | $12.15M |
| 13 | $134.49 | $171.88 | $4.91M | $6.27M | $9.81M | $12.55M |
| 14 | $137.85 | $177.53 | $5.03M | $6.48M | $10.06M | $12.96M |
| 15 | $141.30 | $183.34 | $5.16M | $6.69M | $10.32M | $13.38M |
| 16 | $144.83 | $189.34 | $5.29M | $6.91M | $10.57M | $13.82M |
| 17 | $148.45 | $195.52 | $5.42M | $7.14M | $10.84M | $14.27M |
| 18 | $152.16 | $201.89 | $5.55M | $7.37M | $11.11M | $14.74M |
| 19 | $155.96 | $208.46 | $5.69M | $7.61M | $11.38M | $15.22M |
| 20 | $159.87 | $215.23 | $5.84M | $7.86M | $11.67M | $15.71M |
| 21 | $163.86 | $222.21 | $5.98M | $8.11M | $11.96M | $16.22M |
| 22 | $167.96 | $229.41 | $6.13M | $8.37M | $12.26M | $16.75M |
| 23 | $172.16 | $236.82 | $6.27M | $8.64M | $12.57M | $17.29M |
| 24 | $176.46 | $244.46 | $6.44M | $8.92M | $12.88M | $17.85M |
| 25 | $180.87 | $252.34 | $6.60M | $9.21M | $13.20M | $18.42M |
| 26 | $185.39 | $260.46 | $6.77M | $9.51M | $13.53M | $19.01M |
| 27 | $190.03 | $268.82 | $6.94M | $9.81M | $13.87M | $19.62M |
| 28 | $194.78 | $277.44 | $7.11M | $10.13M | $14.22M | $20.25M |
| 29 | $199.65 | $286.33 | $7.29M | $10.45M | $14.57M | $20.90M |
| 30 | $204.64 | $295.48 | $7.47M | $10.79M | $14.94M | $21.57M |
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative.
Fee and royalty are independent gross transactions and are never netted. Tonnage held constant within each phase.
§5System-Level Impact
§5.1Employment Delta
§5.1 reflects regional employment impacts, not County treasury receipts. These flow to the Minot-area workforce; they do not flow to the County general fund.
| Phase | Direct jobs (estimated) | Indirect jobs (roughly 3×) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial (100 TPD) | ~25 | ~75 | Estimated standard per-TPD scaling |
| Phase Medium (200 TPD) | ~50 | ~150 | Estimated standard per-TPD scaling |
§5.2Environmental Delta (design intent)
| Attribute | State A | State B (design intent) |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon position (committed feedstock) | Landfill methane + transport emissions | No combustion; carbon held in solid Circular Materials such as synthetic graphite; near-zero emissions |
| Landfill diversion | 0% of committed feedstock | ~100% of committed feedstock converted to manufactured outputs (36,500 t/yr at Phase Initial; 73,000 t/yr at Phase Medium) |
| Internal energy | N/A | Hydrogen generated and used on site to run PEM fuel cells; no power, electricity or hydrogen sold |
| External hydrogen offtake | N/A | None — internal use only |
§5.3PFAS Structural Delta
State A: NDDEQ monitors PFAS, including landfill leachate since 2018. North Dakota has no state PFAS rule; PFAS in landfilled material stays in the landfill and its leachate.
State B: PFAS molecules cannot survive elemental dissociation; they are fully broken down in downstream processing at 1,800–3,000°C in both OmniCrude™ streams (design basis). Stream-specific confirmation is deferred to the Deployment Study.
§5.4What Continuing State A Means
- State A is the lower per-ton cost today. The $51/ton gate rate is below the $100/ton Beneficiation Fee, and this report says so.
- No royalty. State A produces no income stream; State B produces a Circular Royalty™ that exceeds the fee from Year 2.
- Airspace keeps being consumed. Each cell fills at the current rate, and the next cell decision arrives sooner.
- No manufacturing destination. The material stays in the landfill rather than becoming Circular Materials.
§6Risk and Sensitivity
§6.1Structured Risk Register
| # | Risk | Driver | Bearer | Quantification | Mitigation | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landfill intake confirmation | ~82,000 t/yr MSW estimated from a vendor case study, post-2011 | Both | The 45% / 89% shares move with the confirmed figure | Deployment Study tonnage review with the City | Low |
| 2 | Technology performance | MCR performance against the production specification | Carbotura | $0 to County (Carbotura-financed, owned and operated) | Verification chain (design intent): component certified → module certified by an ASI → MASI final integration, test and burn-in at FAT → SAT and SIT certify COD | Low |
| 3 | Timeline | Permitting, financing, deployment | Both | Royalty start moves with commercial operation; no calendar target is assumed | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation; cure provisions | Medium |
| 4 | Fee above gate rate | $100/ton fee vs. $51/ton published gate rate | County | Year 1 at Phase Initial tonnage: fee $3.65M vs. $1.86M at the gate rate | Stated openly. From Year 2 the royalty received ($4.38M) exceeds the fee paid | Medium |
| 5 | Alternative disposal options | City rate decisions; a second permitted MSW landfill in the county | Both | Committed tonnage could be routed elsewhere without a contract | 30-year CSA term; MAFV (Minimum Annual Feedstock Volume) | Low |
| 6 | PFAS regulatory | No ND state rule; NDDEQ monitoring only | County (State A) | Not quantified | Elemental dissociation of committed feedstock; feedstock specification in the CSA | Low |
| 7 | Later regional additions | Bismarck / Grand Forks, separate agreements | Both | Not sized; no effect on Phase Initial or Phase Medium | Handled, if ever, under separate agreements | Low |
| 8 | NDDEQ permitting | NDAC 33.1-20 and NDCC 23.1-08 | Carbotura | Permit timing drives the commercial operation date | NDDEQ pre-application engagement at the Deployment Study | Low |
| 9 | Manufacturing classification confirmation | Classification outcome; North Dakota has no advanced-recycling or manufacturing-classification statute | Both | None: no CSA term depends on it | RPT: both parties commit, the endpoint is categorical, interim bridging authorities may apply | Low (RPT-aligned) |
| 10 | Macro inflation / interest-rate | SPV financing close in an elevated-rate environment | Carbotura | $0 to County; affects Carbotura WACC and SPV terms | Staged deployment; standard refinancing provisions | Low (to County) |
| 11 | Workforce availability — regional | Skilled operations and technical hires in north-central North Dakota | Carbotura | Hire delay = commercial operation slip risk | Local-hire targeting; apprenticeship partnerships with regional institutions | Low |
| 12 | Site environmental review | No parcel identified; candidate areas unverified | Carbotura | Mitigation cost or site change | Standard environmental review at the Deployment Study; M1 / M2 / M3 zoning screen | Low |
§6.2Feedstock Variability Sensitivity (±20%)
| Phase | Base TPD | −20% | +20% | Year-2 royalty received impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 100 | 80 | 120 | ±$0.88M annual |
| Phase Medium | 200 | 160 | 240 | ±$1.75M annual |
§6.3Gate-Rate Comparison — No Saving Claimed
At the published $51/ton gate rate, the $100/ton Beneficiation Fee is the higher per-ton cost, and this report claims no disposal saving.
The reason to proceed is the royalty: in Year 2 the royalty received per ton ($120.00) is above that year's fee ($102.50), and under the formula the gap widens every year. Fee and royalty are reported as separate gross amounts and are never netted.
§6.4Royalty Escalator Sensitivity (0 / +1 / +2 pp)
| Escalator | Multiplier applied in Year 30 receipts | Year 30 royalty received / ton | Year 30, Phase Initial | Year 30, Phase Medium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 pp/yr (no escalation) | 120% | $239.58 | $8.74M | $17.49M |
| +1 pp/yr (base case) | 148% | $295.48 | $10.79M | $21.57M |
| +2 pp/yr (upside) | 176% | $351.38 | $12.83M | $25.65M |
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative.
§6.5Timing Sensitivity
| Event | Timing |
|---|---|
| Phase Initial commercial operation | 12–24 months from permit issuance |
| First royalty | 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of the first Beneficiation Fee payment |
| Effect of a delay | The 30-year schedule starts later by the same interval; the per-ton figures do not change |
§7Decision Timing
§7.1Binding Constraints
- Deployment interval. Phase Initial reaches commercial operation 12–24 months from permit issuance. No calendar target is assumed.
- Classification pathway. Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) is actively pursued; nothing in the CSA is contingent on it.
- Landfill cell cycle. Cell 7 was approved in January 2023 with roughly 5–7 years of capacity. Committing tonnage before the next cell decision lets the City plan airspace knowing how much material is leaving the landfill.
§7.2Decision Sequence
| Decision | What follows |
|---|---|
| Authorize LOI / MOU | Term Sheet, then CSA execution |
| CSA execution | Deployment Study; NDDEQ pre-application engagement; permit application |
| Permit issuance | Phase Initial commercial operation within 12–24 months |
| Phase Medium election | When the County chooses |
§7.3Irreversibility Mechanism
Minot faces no landfill closure order and no diversion mandate. The timing question is the City's own airspace planning: each year of State A uses cell capacity that Phase Initial or Phase Medium would otherwise keep in reserve.
Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) is actively pursued for every engagement; nothing is contingent on it.
§7.4Optionality Matrix
| Decision | Phase Initial | Phase Medium | Later regional additions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proceed with Phase Initial | Commercial operation 12–24 months from permit issuance | Preserved, at the County's election | Separate agreements, unsized |
| Proceed with Phase Initial and Phase Medium together | As above | Committed at CSA execution | Separate agreements, unsized |
| Defer | No commitment; airspace consumption continues | — | — |
§8Effects Summary
No new figures introduced. All values trace to §1–§7.
§8.1Fiscal Effects (County Treasury)
| Period | Beneficiation Fee paid (100 TPD) | Circular Royalty™ received (100 TPD) | Beneficiation Fee paid (200 TPD) | Circular Royalty™ received (200 TPD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.65M | $0 (pre-royalty) | $7.29M | $0 (pre-royalty) |
| Year 2 | $3.74M | $4.38M | $7.48M | $8.76M |
| Year 10 | $4.56M | $5.69M | $9.12M | $11.38M |
| Year 30 | $7.47M | $10.79M | $14.94M | $21.57M |
| 30-year gross | ~$160.2M | ~$207.3M | ~$320.5M | ~$414.7M |
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative. Two independent gross transactions, never netted.
§8.2Regional Economic Effects
§8.2 figures are regional economic effects, not County treasury receipts. They do not appear on the County balance sheet.
| Phase at full operation | Direct jobs (estimated) | Indirect jobs (roughly 3×) |
|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | ~25 | ~75 |
| Phase Medium | ~50 | ~150 |
Carbotura's capital ($75M at 100 TPD; $130M at 200 TPD) is privately owned. Local property tax treatment is not modeled here.
§8.3Environmental Effects
§8.3 reflects design intent. Stream-specific environmental performance verification is deferred to the Deployment Study and operational reporting.
- Carbon position: no combustion and near-zero emissions under State B (design intent); landfill methane continues under State A.
- Landfill diversion: ~100% of committed streams converted to manufactured outputs under State B (design intent); 0% under State A.
- PFAS: broken down in downstream processing under State B (design basis); retained in landfill and leachate under State A.
§8.4Structural Effects
- Pricing: committed tonnage moves from the City's annually set gate rate to the CSA fee schedule ($100/ton, +2.5%/yr, known for 30 years); non-committed tonnage stays at the gate rate.
- Capital exposure: $0 to the County under State B. Cell expansion remains a City cost, but cells fill more slowly.
- Classification: State B pursues manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) on an RPT-aligned basis; nothing is contingent on it.
§8.5Unresolved Data Gaps
| Gap | Impact | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|
| Landfill intake (~82,000 t/yr MSW, vendor case study, post-2011) | Affects the 45% / 89% share figures | Deployment Study tonnage review with the City |
| Stream-specific feedstock composition | Affects product mix, not the fee or royalty formula | Deployment Study characterization |
| Commercial collection terms | Affects how committed tonnage is routed | Deployment Study review with the City |
| NDDEQ permit pathway (NDAC 33.1-20; NDCC 23.1-08) | Affects the commercial operation date | Deployment Study NDDEQ pre-application engagement |
| Candidate site | No parcel identified; M1 / M2 / M3 districts to be screened | Site selection and environmental review |
| Manufacturing classification confirmation | None on the CSA; nothing is contingent on it | Actively pursued |
ASources and Methodology
State A baseline: Waste Study (Document 1 of the package) and the public records below. State B baseline: Proposal EIR Input Block (Section 2 of engagement).
Beneficiation Fee: $100/ton Year 1, escalating 2.5%/yr — the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range.
Circular Royalty™ formula: Royalty per ton (Year n, accrual) = Mn × BFn, where BFn = $100 × 1.025(n−1) and Mn = 120% + (n−1) percentage points. Tables in this report are on a receipts basis: the royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so Year n receipts = Mn−1 × BFn−1. 365 operating days.
Phase sizing: Phase Initial 100 TPD; Phase Medium 200 TPD. Employment: estimated from standard per-TPD scaling. Timeline: 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation. Environmental: design intent per Carbotura's ACM production specification.
Public records:
- City of Minot Landfill — ownership, address, Cell 7, 2017 land purchase: minotnd.gov/288/Landfill
- Gate rates effective 2025-01-01 (MSW $51/ton; inert $37/ton): minotnd.gov/691/Landfill-Rates
- Residential collection and cart rates: minotnd.gov/282
- Active permitted MSW landfills (permits 0272, 0326): deq.nd.gov
- Population (Ward County 68,233, 2025 estimate): Minot Daily News, 2026-03-26, minotdailynews.com
- Landfill intake (~82,000 t/yr MSW; ~68,800 t/yr inert; six counties): estimate: vendor case study, post-2011, retrieved 2026-11-10
- State framework: NDAC 33.1-20 (solid waste) and NDCC 23.1-08
BEIR Glossary Additions
Full document-suite glossary in Waste Study Appendix D. EIR-specific terms:
- Published Gate Rate — The City of Minot Landfill's published per-ton rate ($51/ton MSW from 2025-01-01). Used in this report as the State A reference only.
- Receipts Basis — Royalty shown in the year it is received. Because payment runs 13 months in arrears, Year n receipts reflect Year n−1 tonnage, multiplier and fee.
- Pre-Royalty Period — Months 1–12 (Year 1) of Phase Initial operations. Fee paid; $0 royalty due to the 13-month lag.
- Royalty Ramp Period — Months 13–24 (Year 2). Rolling monthly royalty payments begin and ramp to full run-rate.
- Steady-State Period — Year 3 onward. Royalty received per ton exceeds the fee per ton, and the gap widens each year.
- Delta Model — Comparative analytical framework quantifying the State A → State B transition. Does not re-diagnose State A or re-define State B.
★Basis of Presentation
This EIR quantifies the State A → State B transition for Minot and Ward County, North Dakota, over a 30-year horizon. State A figures come from the Waste Study and published City and NDDEQ records; State B figures come from the Proposal EIR Input Block. Each value is classified by confidence tier.
| Parameter | Value Applied | Basis | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial 100 TPD / 36,500 t/yr | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation | Architect sizing decision, 2026-11-10 | Locked |
| Phase Medium 200 TPD / 73,000 t/yr | When the County chooses | Architect sizing decision, 2026-11-10 | Locked |
| Beneficiation Fee Year 1 = $100/ton | Escalating 2.5%/yr | the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range | Locked |
| State A published MSW gate rate = $51/ton | Held flat; no escalation modeled | City of Minot, effective 2025-01-01 | Verified |
| Landfill intake ~82,000 t/yr MSW | Denominator for the 45% / 89% shares | Estimate: vendor case study, post-2011, retrieved 2026-11-10 | Estimated |
| Employment ~25 / ~50 direct | Indirect roughly 3× | Standard per-TPD scaling | Estimated |
| Operator verification | City of Minot Landfill (municipal, permit 0272); McDaniel Landfill Inc, Sawyer (permit 0326) | NDDEQ active MSW landfill list; City records | Verified |
Unresolved Data Gaps
- Landfill intake confirmation — Deployment Study tonnage review.
- Stream-specific feedstock composition — Deployment Study characterization.
- Candidate site — no parcel identified.
- NDDEQ permit pathway — pre-application engagement at the Deployment Study.
- Manufacturing classification confirmation — actively pursued; nothing contingent on it.
Confidence tiers: Locked = Architect decision or contractually standard Verified = sourced to named public record Estimated = Carbotura-modeled with stated methodology or reported without a date Provisional = pre-Term Sheet placeholder.