The 30-year CSA is a royalty-producing asset that replaces a waste liability on Ward County's books.
Ward County's manufacturing-feedstock streams — ~100 TPD of MSW, C&D residuals, industrial special, and biosolids — currently flow through City of Minot Sanitation Department collection to the City of Minot Landfill, the County's sole disposal facility. Disposal cost has escalated at ~3.5–4.5% per year on the documented North Dakota regional schedule. No regulatory closure order forces an external deadline. The decision window is structural: first-mover communities secure available regional ACM siting capacity, and the 12–18 month build from CSA execution to commissioning means a Q2 2028 commissioning target requires authorization now.
The current system. Ward County pays approximately $3.0M annually for disposal of its 36,500-TPY base load at a blended FWDC of ~$82/ton, escalating at ~3.5%/yr on the regional rate schedule. Over thirty years, status-quo disposal cost compounds to approximately $165M cumulative — paid out, with no offsetting return.
The relationship. Ward County becomes the manufacturing feedstock supplier to the ACM facility on the US-2 / US-52 corridor; Carbotura is the manufacturer that material stream transfers to under the CSA. The 30-year Circular Supply Agreement is a supply agreement, not a service contract or a procurement instrument. Carbotura funds 100% of capital under a Build-Own-Operate structure. Phase Initial 100 TPD is fully supportable from Ward County feedstock alone; Stage 2 through Phase Expanded (200 → 2,000 TPD over 60 months) are independently negotiable additions with Bismarck and Grand Forks partnerships optional and additive — not preconditions.
Carbotura offers a single commercial structure: the Circular Supply Agreement (CSA).
Transport. The County transports feedstock to the ACM facility under existing collection contracts — a routing swap from the current landfill destination to Carbotura's site. No new fleet, no new contracts, no new collection infrastructure.
Timeline alignment. T0 = Q2 2026 (engagement start). Phase Initial COD Q2 2028 (T0 + 24 months). First Circular Royalty™ payment Q3 2029 (Phase Initial COD + 13 months). Each six-month slip past the Q2 2026 Council authorization pushes Phase Initial COD month-for-month and reduces Year-2 Royalty receipts cumulatively across the CSA term.
The 30-year fiscal pattern resolves into three clearly defined periods:
The Circular Royalty™ widening spread compounds every year, improving that differential throughout the CSA term.
"Gross cost displacement and Circular Royalty™ cash flow are quantified separately.
"At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis."
"Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
+$45M. Combined with avoided disposal cost displacement, the 30-year combined fiscal benefit versus continuing the status-quo system is approximately +$210M for Phase Initial alone — and ESTIMATED +$3B+ if Tier 3 partnerships materialize and Phase Expanded reaches full operations.
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial addressable feedstock | 100 TPD / 36,500 TPY | Verified — user intake |
| Phase Expanded design capacity | 2,000 TPD / 730,000 TPY | Verified — user intake |
| Current FWDC (blended Minot Triangle) | ~$75/ton planning basis | Estimated |
| Beneficiation Fee, Year 1 | $75/ton | Verified — user-confirmed |
| TMC escalator | 2.5%/yr | Carbotura standard |
| Gross cost displacement, Year 1 (Ward County) | ~$3.0M annual | Estimated |
| Circular Royalty™ rate, Year 1 | 120% of contemporaneous TMC | Carbotura standard |
| Circular Royalty™ Year 1 payment | $0 — 13-month lag (pre-royalty period) | Locked formula |
| Royalty escalator | +1 percentage point/yr | Carbotura standard |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months, rolling monthly | Locked formula |
| 30-yr combined fiscal benefit (Phase Initial only) | ~+$210M | Modeled |
| Capital obligation to County | $0 | BOO structure |
| Hard external regulatory deadline | None | Verified |
| Council authorization deadline | Q2 2026 | T0 + 0 (concurrent) |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2028 | T0 + 24mo |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | Q3 2029 | Phase Initial COD + 13mo |
| Direct employment, Phase Initial → Phase Expanded | 25 → 280 direct FTE | Estimated |
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) | Manufacturing classification required — NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, or 331492. Federal basis: RCRA §1004(27) · 40 CFR §261.2(e). Both parties commit to the RPT pathway onto manufacturing NAICS. | Standing condition · MR §3 |
The basis of decision irreversibility is manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) — the classification basis under which Carbotura CSAs proceed. Each month that passes, more North Dakota regional communities enter Carbotura engagement pipelines and absorb available regional ACM siting capacity.
If T0 slips past Q4 2026, Phase Initial COD moves into 2029, and the 60-month phase scaling pathway shifts proportionally — pushing Phase Expanded full operations from Q2 2033 into 2034 or later. Each six-month slip costs approximately $1.8–$2.2M in Year-2 Royalty foregone at Phase Initial scale, compounding to $25–35M cumulative at Phase Expanded scale.
If the Tier 3 partnerships (Bismarck and Grand Forks) are not coordinated concurrent with the Ward County CSA, the inter-jurisdictional 18–24-month coordination cycle restarts from a later T0 — Phase Expanded materializes years later than necessary, with proportional foregone Royalty and avoided-disposal benefit.
The Deployment Study runs 4–6 weeks and resolves: (a) FWDC verification across Ward County streams via direct contract review, with verifications against City-supplied documentation; (b) Priority 1 / 2 / 3 site geotechnical and zoning assessment; (c) NDDEQ permit pre-application engagement; (d) Tier 3 partnership coordination instrument framework; (e) FAQ / public engagement materials. It commits no capital obligation to the City, produces the verified data set required for the LOI decision, and creates no exclusivity binding either party. $0 to Minot — Carbotura bears the cost.
The Deployment Study commits no capital obligation to the County. It produces the verified data set required for CSA execution and creates no exclusivity binding either party.
Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
Source basis. Key data sources: US Census Bureau (2024 Ward County estimate); North Dakota State Demographer (2024–2055 projections); North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality active-facility records (North Dakota Administrative Code Title 33 Article 20 (Solid Waste Management Rules)); North Central North Dakota Council of Governments solid waste data; City of Minot, City of Bismarck, and City of Grand Forks municipal records and posted service rates. Financial projections: Carbotura Circular Advantage modeling (RC3 baseline, standard contractual parameters). Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
A single-page summary for decision-makers: what Minot is being asked to authorise, what it receives in return, and the deadline that governs the timetable.