Ward County's US-2 position routes ~100 TPD of local manufacturing feedstock to a single municipal landfill — with no contracted alternative pathway.
§0What This Means
- Ward County has a single local disposal option. Minot's own municipal landfill — the City of Minot Landfill — is the only MSW disposal facility inside Ward County. Bismarck's and Grand Forks's landfills are separate municipal systems ~110 mi and ~210 mi away respectively — long-haul, not local catchment.
- Feedstock universe is layered. Ward County alone generates ~100 TPD of total feedstock (sufficient for Phase Initial). The 50-mile natural catchment (adjacent counties) generates ~1,095 TPD additional. Long-haul partnerships with Bismarck and Grand Forks would extend addressable volume toward the ~5,000 TPD inferred resource — but as a stretch goal, not near-term addressable.
- Disposal cost varies sharply across the catchment. Ward County rural blended ~$82/ton; Bismarck metro ~$108/ton; Grand Forks metro ~$95/ton. The collector-facing Full Waste Disposal Cost is materially above the landfill gate tipping fee — collection, transport, and operator margin together account for most of the per-ton cost.
- No hard regulatory deadline. Unlike communities operating under landfill closure orders, Minot's decision window is structural — driven by disposal-cost escalation, regional capacity tightening, and federal RCRA classification timing — not by a binding regulatory event.
- No dominant-operator counterparty risk. Ward County's disposal facility is a municipal department, not a private landfill operator — there is no single corporate counterparty controlling gate pricing or capacity allocation the way there would be under a private-operator concentration.
§1Feedstock Profile
§1.1Capability Finding
ACM is capable of processing every material stream Minot's catchment generates. Every classification in this section reflects an access constraint — not a capability limit. The barrier to any stream is contractual, logistical, or regulatory — never technical.
§1.2Feedstock Volume Table
| Stream | TPY | TPD | Current Disposition | Operator | Access Class. | ACM Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Ward County Anchor (pop. ~36,500) | ||||||
| Ward County MSW (residential + commercial) | ~25,500 | ~70 | the City of Minot Landfill | City of Minot Sanitation Department | Immediate | Initial |
| Ward County C&D residuals | ~5,500 | ~15 | City of Minot Landfill + regional C&D | Mixed haulers | Immediate | Initial |
| Ward County industrial / commercial special | ~3,650 | ~10 | Mixed regional disposal | Mixed | Immediate | Initial |
| Ward County WWTP biosolids | ~1,825 | ~5 | Land application / co-disposal | City of Minot WWTP | Conditional | Initial |
| Ward County subtotal | ~36,475 | ~100 | Initial | |||
| Tier 2 — 50-mi Natural Catchment (additional pop. ~400,000) | ||||||
| Renville County (Mohall + surrounds) | ~150,000 | ~410 | Multiple regional disposal | Waste Management, mixed haulers | Conditional | Stage 2 / Medium |
| McHenry County (Towner, Velva partial) | ~140,000 | ~384 | Multiple | Waste Management, mixed haulers, City of Velva | Conditional | Stage 2 / Medium |
| McHenry + Renville + McLean + Mountrail | ~110,000 | ~301 | Corridor disposal | Mixed | Conditional | Medium |
| 50-mi catchment subtotal | ~400,000 | ~1,095 | Conditional | Stage 2 → Medium | ||
| Tier 3 — Long-Haul Regional Partnerships (110–210 mi, outside natural catchment) | ||||||
| Bismarck metro extension (full Burleigh + Morton, ~110 mi) | ~700,000 | ~1,918 | City of Bismarck Landfill | City of Bismarck Solid Waste Services | Conditional | Stage 4 / Expanded |
| Grand Forks metro extension (full Grand Forks + East Grand Forks, ~210 mi) | ~110,000 | ~300 | Grand Forks Landfill | City of Grand Forks Public Works | Conditional | Stage 4 / Expanded |
| Long-haul partnership subtotal | ~810,000 | ~2,218 | Conditional | Stage 4 → Expanded | ||
| Total addressable (50-mi catchment + long-haul extensions) | ~1,246,500 | ~3,413 | All phases | |||
| Theoretical inferred universe | ~1,825,000 | ~5,000 | Inferred | UNFC G-axis | ||
§1.3Primary ACM Feedstocks (Phase Initial Priority)
Three streams have no contract barrier and are designated Phase Initial priority:
- Ward County MSW (~70 TPD). City of Minot Sanitation Department provides residential and commercial collection under typical short-term commercial contract structure with no long-term municipal lock-in. Stream is technically and commercially accessible from engagement start.
- Ward County C&D residuals + industrial/commercial special (~25 TPD). Mixed-hauler streams with no incumbent contract concentration. Available to ACM upon site commissioning.
- Ward County WWTP biosolids (~5 TPD). Conditional on city WWTP service agreement; modest scale; suitable as co-feed.
Combined Phase Initial accessible volume: ~100 TPD — exactly matching the user-specified Phase Initial deployment capacity. No third-party negotiation required for Phase Initial.
§1.4Full Feedstock Capability Statement
All listed streams are confirmed processable by ACM. Every Conditional classification in the volume table reflects one of three barriers:
- A third-party hauler or municipal contract requiring renegotiation or new instrument
- A multi-jurisdictional partnership pathway not yet executed (Tier 2 / Tier 3)
- A logistic transport increment to be confirmed at Deployment Study
None reflects a technical capability limit.
§1.5UNFC Feedstock Resource Classification
This section is the formal "ore body audit" — the G-axis (Source Uncertainty) characterisation supporting both the §5 Feedstock Opportunity sizing and any forward institutional financing collateral basis. Classification follows the United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC), Anthropogenic Resources category.
Proven Feedstock Reserve
$0 TPD. No CSA executed. The Minot engagement is at intake — no signed contractual instrument exists yet.
Indicated Feedstock Resource
~100 TPD (~36,500 TPY). Ward County engagement pathway. Status: ESTIMATED. Instrument formalisation expected at MOU stage with City of Minot and/or Ward County counterparties.
Inferred Feedstock Resource
~5,000 TPD (~1,825,000 TPY). Theoretical addressable universe — full 50-mile natural catchment plus Bismarck and Grand Forks metropolitan partnership extensions. Carbotura's Phase Expanded design (2,000 TPD) captures 40% of the inferred resource.
Granular Composition Breakdown — Inferred Resource Sources & UNFC G-Axis Ore Grade
Primary stream contributions to the inferred resource:
- Residential MSW: ~1,900 TPD
- Commercial MSW: ~1,200 TPD
- Industrial / commercial special: ~700 TPD
- C&D residuals: ~550 TPD
- Industrial process residuals: ~430 TPD
- Regional WWTP biosolids: ~220 TPD
Data source: US Census Bureau county-level estimates (2024); North Central North Dakota Council of Governments solid waste data; North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality regional facility records; per-capita generation rate ~1.0 ton/year (North Dakota regional median).
Elemental Composition (UNFC G-Axis Ore Grade — ESTIMATED, Carbotura standard):
- Carbon fraction: 35–45% (plastics + paper + organics)
- Inorganic fraction: 30–40% (metals, glass, fines, ash)
- Moisture content: 18–25%
- Calorific value: 8–12 MJ/kg
Stream-specific characterisation deferred to Deployment Study MSW audit.
Classification Summary Table
| Classification | Volume (TPD) | Volume (TPY) | Basis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proven Feedstock Reserve | 0 | 0 | Signed CSA | None |
| Indicated Feedstock Resource | ~100 | ~36,500 | Ward County engagement pathway, MOU pending | Estimated |
| Inferred Feedstock Resource | ~5,000 | ~1,825,000 | 50-mile catchment + partnership extensions | Estimated |
| Total Urban Mine | ~5,100 | ~1,861,500 | Full addressable feedstock | Estimated |
§2Logistics and Infrastructure
Ward County collection. The City of Minot Sanitation Department provides residential and commercial collection in Minot and surrounding Ward County jurisdictions. Routes converge on the City of Minot Landfill (3500 19th Ave SW, Ward County) — within Ward County, a short local haul.
US-2 / US-52 corridor as logistics spine. US-2 is a 4-lane east-west US highway route through the Minot catchment, connecting Bismarck (~110mi south of Minot via US-83) and Grand Forks (~210mi east of Minot via US-2). ND-3, ND-8, and ND-52 provide lateral access to Ward County feedstock origins. The City of Minot Landfill is functionally a regional disposal hub already aggregating Ward County, McHenry County (Velva), and adjacent Renville County waste flows.
Regional haul distances (from Minot reference point)
- the City of Minot Landfill (Ward County): local (within-county haul)
- the City of Bismarck Landfill (Burleigh County): ~110 mi (~2h)
- the Grand Forks Landfill (Grand Forks County): ~210 mi (~3h15min)
Transfer infrastructure. No municipal transfer station exists in Minot — Ward County operates a direct-haul model. Both Bismarck and Grand Forks metropolitan areas operate transfer station networks (Bismarck: four municipal drop-off centers; Grand Forks: Cobbs Recycling Center plus municipal collection routing through Schroeder Drive facility).
Existing route convergence. Regional waste flow on the US-2 / US-52 corridor already concentrates toward the City of Minot Landfill from the north (McHenry County, southern Burleigh) and from Ward County itself. A Minot-anchored ACM facility on the US-2 / US-52 corridor is logistically aligned with these existing flows — feedstock redirection from gate to ACM is a route-distance reduction in most cases, not an extension.
§3Cost Structure
§3.1Current System Cost Table
| Cost Element | Annual Year 1 | Per-Ton | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ward County all-stream blended disposal cost | ~$2,975,000 | ~$82 | Modeled |
| City of Minot Landfill gate tipping fee component | ~$32–42 | Estimated | |
| City of Minot Sanitation Department collection / transport increment | ~$40–50 | Estimated | |
| Ward County MSW (residential + commercial) | ~$2,090,000 | ~$82 | Estimated |
| Ward County C&D residuals | ~$385,000 | ~$70 | Estimated |
| Ward County industrial / commercial special | ~$330,000 | ~$90 | Estimated |
| City of Minot WWTP biosolids disposal | ~$170,000 | ~$95 | Estimated |
| 5-year disposal rate escalation trajectory | 3.5%/yr (CPI + 1pp) | Estimated |
A measurable gap exists between the gate-tipping fee the City of Minot Landfill operator charges at the City of Minot Landfill (~$32–42/ton estimated) and the full collector-facing rate the County and its commercial customers actually pay (~$82/ton blended). The collection, transport, and operator margin layered above the gate tipping fee constitute most of Ward County's Full Waste Disposal Cost. This gap widens at greater haul distances — relevant to Bismarck and Grand Forks partnership extensions where one-way haul distances exceed 50 miles.
§3.2Operators (verified)
- City of Minot Sanitation Department — Minot residential and commercial collection, and operator of the City of Minot Landfill (3500 19th Ave SW, Ward County). Municipal department, not a private hauler; long-term contract lock-in not applicable.
- City of Bismarck Solid Waste Services — Operates the City of Bismarck Landfill (2111 N 52nd St, Bismarck) and municipal collection via drop-off centers; ~110 miles from Minot. Independently municipal-operated — no relationship to Ward County disposal.
- City of Grand Forks Public Works — Operates the Grand Forks Landfill (5500 54th Ave N, Grand Forks) and municipal collection; ~210 miles from Minot. Independently municipal-operated.
- City of Minot Water & Wastewater — Municipal WWTP operator; biosolids destination is land application or co-disposal (specific destination not publicly documented).
- Waste Management (WM) — Lists Minot on its published residential/commercial service-area directory (wm.com); role limited to commercial hauling in parts of the catchment, not landfill ownership. WM does not operate a landfill in Ward County, Burleigh County, or Grand Forks County.
Operator verification source: North Dakota DEQ active-facility records; City of Minot, City of Bismarck, and City of Grand Forks official sites (April 2026).
§3.3Cost Trajectory
Three documented mechanisms drive forward disposal cost growth in the Minot Triangle:
- Rate escalation. North Dakota commercial waste contracts typically include CPI + 1 percentage point annual escalators. Regional published rate schedules show ~3.5–4.5%/yr increases for commercial customers in central North Dakota.
- Capital reinvestment pressure. The City of Minot, City of Bismarck, and City of Grand Forks landfills have each undergone or are scheduled for cell expansion projects 2024–2030 — capex passes through to gate rates.
- Absence of a competitive alternative within Ward County. Minot has one MSW disposal facility — its own municipal landfill. There is no private or regional competitor within the immediate catchment; Bismarck and Grand Forks are separate municipal systems 110–210 miles away, not local competitive alternatives.
Unlike a finite geological mine, Ward County's feedstock stream is a perpetually renewable resource — structurally stable or growing with regional population and economic activity.
- 5-year historical waste generation trend. Ward County population growth 2019–2024 ≈ +2.1%/yr (US Census estimates). 50-mile catchment population growth ≈ +1.8%/yr (NCTCOG / North Dakota State Demographer projections). Per-capita waste generation flat to slightly increasing (NDDEQ annual MSW reports).
- 30-year projection basis. North Dakota State Demographer 2055 projection: Ward County +29% from 2024 (to ~47,000); Burleigh County +18%; Grand Forks County +11%; corridor aggregate +35–45% population growth through 2055.
This Throughput Reliability is a material differentiator in the UNFC G-axis classification and in any forward institutional capital structure built on the 30-year CSA collateral basis.
§4Regulatory Baseline
Ward County operates under North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality (NDDEQ) jurisdiction per North Dakota Administrative Code Title 33 Article 20 (Solid Waste Management Rules) (MSW Management Regulations). The North Dakota Solid Waste Disposal Act (North Dakota Century Code Ch. 23-29) governs licensing and permit framework. No state-level diversion mandate or comprehensive extended producer responsibility law currently in force; North Dakota Century Code Ch. 23-29 (as amended 2023) introduced limited packaging EPR scope, not yet operational.
No active landfill closure orders identified for Ward County. The City of Minot Landfill holds a valid operating permit with no documented near-term closure or capacity-exhaustion deadline; the same holds for the City of Bismarck and City of Grand Forks landfills, both well outside the immediate Ward County catchment.
Federal regulatory developments relevant to the decision window
- EPA RCRA Subtitle D MSW landfill rules under review 2025–2026. Potential PFAS, leachate, and gas-collection rule tightening could elevate operating costs at the City of Minot Landfill 2027–2029.
- Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33). ACM facilities are classified as manufacturing (NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492), never solid waste (NAICS 562213/562219) — the federal basis for the Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) governing all Carbotura CSAs.
- Industrial PFAS regulation. NDDEQ has not issued North Dakota-specific PFAS rules; federal action expected 2026–2027 may impose treatment or destination changes for specific industrial waste streams in the catchment.
Minot does not face a single hard regulatory deadline (unlike Hawaii's H-POWER closure or Saskatchewan's Moose Jaw landfill end-of-life). The Council decision window is structural — driven by:
- regional disposal-cost escalation trajectory
- Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) under the Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) — first-mover communities secure positioning advantages
- Multi-jurisdictional partnership coordination (Bismarck and Grand Forks) requiring 18–24 months of intergovernmental work to mature — beginning that work now preserves Phase Expanded optionality
§5Feedstock Opportunity
§5.1System-Wide Addressable Volume Summary
- Total theoretical system volume (50-mile catchment + long-haul partnerships): ~5,000 TPD (~1,825,000 TPY) — UNFC Inferred Resource
- Immediately accessible (no partnership required, IMMEDIATE classification): ~95 TPD (Ward County MSW + C&D + industrial special)
- Conditionally accessible — Tier 2 (50-mile natural catchment with municipal partnership): ~1,095 TPD additional
- Conditionally accessible — Tier 3 (Bismarck + Grand Forks long-haul partnerships, 110–210 mi): ~2,218 TPD additional
- Phase Expanded design (2,000 TPD) captures ~40% of total theoretical volume, but depends entirely on securing both long-haul partnerships — treat as a stretch goal, not near-term addressable
§5.2Addressability Table
| Configuration | Aggregate TPD | Counterparty Set | Access Class. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial only | 100 | Ward County / City of Minot | Immediate |
| Phase Initial + Stage 2 | 200–400 | + 1–2 adjacent counties (Renville / McHenry / Bottineau) | Conditional |
| Phase Medium full | 400 | Tier 1 + Tier 2 partial | Conditional |
| Stage 4 | 1,000 | + Bismarck OR Grand Forks partnership | Conditional |
| Phase Expanded | 2,000 | + Bismarck AND Grand Forks partnerships | Conditional |
§5.3Phase Configuration Preview
- Conservative configuration (no third-party negotiation). Phase Initial 100 TPD — fully served by Ward County feedstock. Single CSA with City of Minot / Ward County. Zero partnership dependency.
- 50-mile natural catchment configuration. Stage 2 (200 TPD) and Phase Medium (400 TPD) require CSA additions or LOIs from one or more adjacent jurisdictions. Each addition is independent — no forced sequence. Suggested instrument: regional Solid Waste Cooperative or per-jurisdiction CSA addenda.
- Full system addressable. Phase Expanded 2,000 TPD requires Bismarck metropolitan partnership and/or Grand Forks metropolitan partnership. Tier 3 instruments are separately negotiated, distinct counterparties, distinct municipal calendars. Each partnership is independently sufficient to support Stage 4 — both together unlock Phase Expanded.
§6Infrastructure Map
Active and proposed waste management infrastructure across the 50-mile Minot Triangle catchment. Use the filter bar to focus on specific facility types. Click any facility on the map or the right panel to highlight; selection is bidirectional.
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Source: North Dakota DEQ active-facility records; City of Minot, City of Bismarck, and City of Grand Forks official sites. Verification date: April 2026.
AEvidence Chain
Key figures and their public source verification.
| Figure | Value | Public Source | Source Type | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ward County population | ~36,500 | US Census Bureau 2024 estimate | Public | Estimated |
| 50-mile catchment population | ~700,000 | US Census Bureau county-level data + GIS overlay | Modeled | Estimated |
| the City of Minot Landfill | Active | North Dakota DEQ active-facility records + City of Minot website | Public | Verified |
| Ward County MSW volume | ~25,500 TPY | Per-capita generation (NDDEQ regional median) × population | Modeled | Estimated |
| FWDC blended (Minot Triangle) | ~$75/ton | North Dakota regional gate rate median + collection increment | Modeled | Estimated |
| North Dakota commercial waste rate escalation | 3.5%/yr | Waste Management 2024–2025 published rate schedule + regional municipal rate data | Public | Estimated |
| Ward County 30-year population projection | ~47,000 | North Dakota State Demographer 2055 projection | Public | Estimated |
BChange Factors
Five factors that would materially change the diagnostic findings in this Deployment Study.
- Municipal rate restructuring (Minot, Bismarck, or Grand Forks). Direction: ↑ FWDC. Mechanism: A unilateral rate increase or contract restructure by any of the three municipal landfill operators in the Minot Triangle catchment would elevate State A FWDC trajectory above the documented +3.5%/yr baseline, accelerating the decision window.
- Federal PFAS rule promulgation. Direction: ↑ FWDC. Mechanism: EPA PFAS rules (expected 2026–2027) imposing treatment, destination, or destruction-efficiency requirements would step-change disposal costs at the City of Minot Landfill and industrial/biosolids streams generally.
- City of Minot Landfill capacity event. Direction: ↑ FWDC, ↑ urgency. Mechanism: Cell-expansion delay or denial at the City of Minot Landfill would force Ward County waste flows to a longer-haul facility (City of Bismarck Landfill, ~110 mi, or Grand Forks Landfill, ~210 mi), elevating per-ton costs and creating de facto capacity scarcity.
- Bismarck or Grand Forks municipal procurement decision. Direction: ↑ partnership opportunity. Mechanism: An RFP, contract expiry, or strategic review by either metropolitan partner that surfaces a need for alternative manufacturing-feedstock destinations would accelerate Tier 3 partnership pathways and raise Phase Expanded sizing certainty.
- North Dakota NDDEQ rule change on industrial special waste. Direction: ↑ stream-specific FWDC. Mechanism: North Dakota-level industrial waste rule changes (heavy metals, PFAS, industrial residuals classification) would alter the stream-level cost trajectory for ~10 TPD of Ward County industrial special and ~700 TPD of regional industrial residual streams.
CSources and References
Population and demographics
- US Census Bureau — 2024 county population estimates (Ward, Burleigh, Grand Forks, McHenry, Renville, Bottineau, McLean, Mountrail Counties)
- North Dakota State Demographer — 2024–2055 county-level population projections
Operator and facility data
- Waste Management (WM) — corporate website (wm.com), Minot service-area listing
- North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality (NDDEQ) — active municipal solid waste landfill records
- City of Minot, City of Bismarck, City of Grand Forks — official municipal websites and posted service rates
- Google Places verification (April 2026) — facility names, addresses, coordinates, operating hours
Regulatory framework
- North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality (NDDEQ) — North Dakota Administrative Code Title 33 Article 20 (Solid Waste Management Rules) (MSW Management Regulations)
- North Dakota Solid Waste Disposal Act — North Dakota Health & Safety Code Chapter 361
- US EPA — RCRA Subtitle D MSW landfill rules (proposed amendments under review 2025–2026)
- North Central North Dakota Council of Governments (NCTCOG) — regional solid waste data and planning projections
DAuthoritative Glossary
Full document-suite glossary. All terms remain consistent across Deployment Study, Proposal, EIR, and Brief.
★Basis of Presentation
This page presents diagnostic findings on the Ward County manufacturing-feedstock system and the surrounding 50-mile catchment. Each figure is classified by confidence tier. Final values for CSA execution will be confirmed at the Deployment Study following Council authorization.
| Parameter | Value Applied | Basis | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial 100 TPD scaling pathway | 100 → 200 → 400 → 1,000 → 2,000 TPD over 60mo | User intake — engagement scoping | Locked |
| Ward County total feedstock | ~100 TPD / ~36,500 TPY | US Census 2024 + North Dakota regional per-capita generation rate | Estimated |
| Ward County FWDC (blended) | ~$82/ton | North Dakota regional gate rate median + collection/transport increment | Estimated |
| 50-mile catchment FWDC (blended) | ~$75/ton | Phase-weighted blend of Ward County / Bismarck metro / Grand Forks metro components | Estimated |
| Inferred Feedstock Resource (UNFC G-axis) | ~5,000 TPD / ~1,825,000 TPY | 50-mi catchment + Tier 3 partnership extensions | Estimated |
| Forward disposal escalation | ~3.5%/yr (CPI + 1pp) | Waste Management published 2024–2025 rate schedule + regional municipal rate data | Estimated |
| Operator verification (3 facilities) | City of Minot × 1, City of Bismarck × 1, City of Grand Forks × 1 — each independently municipal | North Dakota DEQ facility records, April 2026 | Verified |
| Site candidates (P1, P2, P3) | Three US-2 / US-52 corridor zones identified | Geographic and zoning analysis — pre-Term Sheet Study | Provisional |
| Feedstock elemental composition | Carbotura standard MSW profile (35–45% C; 30–40% inorganic; 18–25% moisture) | Carbotura corpus standard; stream-specific characterization deferred | Estimated |
Unresolved Data Gaps
- Ward County stream-specific FWDC composition — City of Minot Sanitation Department contract terms not publicly documented; resolved at Deployment Study contract review.
- City of Minot WWTP biosolids destination specifics — service-agreement coordination required.
- North Dakota NDDEQ permit timeline specifics for ACM facility — pre-application engagement at Deployment Study.
- Tier 3 partnership entity-specific commitments (Bismarck / Grand Forks) — inter-jurisdictional coordination 2026–2028.
Confidence tiers: Locked = user-confirmed or contractually binding Verified = sourced to public record at named verification date Estimated = Carbotura-modeled from public data with stated methodology Provisional = pre-Term Sheet-Study placeholder.