§1Transaction Structure
§1.0Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT)
Advanced Circular Manufacturing is designed as a manufacturing process, not a waste-management activity. Microwave Catalytic Reforming (MCR) operates in an anoxic, oxygen-free, sub-atmospheric environment — mechanistically incompatible with combustion or biological degradation. The Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) — also framed as the dewaste pathway — is the coordinated regulatory shift from legacy disposal-predicate statutes onto manufacturing-predicate classifications (NAICS 31–33, ACM set 325180 · 325998 · 327992 · 331110 · 331314 · 331492), with the EPA RCRA §1004(27) / 40 CFR §261.2(e) exclusion pathway at federal level. In North Dakota, solid waste is governed by NDCC 23.1-08 and NDAC 33.1-20; the state has no advanced-recycling or manufacturing-classification statute, so the transition is worked with NDDEQ case by case. Manufacturing classification is actively pursued; nothing in this proposal is contingent on it. Both parties commit to the RPT pathway. Carbotura brings the process-classification evidence, regulatory engagement experience and the legal-technical framework. The counterparty brings the standing to engage the local regulator and the political mandate for the transition. The endpoint is categorical: manufacturing classification across all permitting, licensing, and regulatory contexts. Interim bridging authorities may apply during the transition.
§1.1Commercial Structure
The 30-year CSA turns a landfill-bound material stream into a royalty-producing asset, with no City or County capital.
The proposed instrument is a 30-year Circular Supply Agreement (CSA) between Carbotura and the City of Minot / Ward County (anchor counterparty). Partnerships with Bismarck or Grand Forks are possible later additions under separate agreements; none is assumed or sized here. Under the CSA, the counterparty becomes the manufacturing feedstock supplier to the ACM facility; ownership of and liability for the delivered material transfer to Carbotura at delivery. This is a supply arrangement, not a service contract and not a procurement instrument.
Carbotura's commitments under the CSA
- Deploy, own, operate, and maintain the ACM facility for the 30-year CSA term
- Fund 100% of deployment capital: $75M for Phase Initial (100 TPD); $130M in total if Phase Medium (200 TPD) follows
- Pay the Circular Royalty™ equal to 120% of the current-year Beneficiation Fee per ton, rising 1 percentage point per year, paid 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of each Beneficiation Fee payment, rolling monthly
- Deliver designed environmental performance: near-zero residual and near-zero emissions on committed streams
- Commit to the Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) as a joint pathway alongside site permitting
Counterparty's commitments under the CSA
- Direct committed feedstock streams to the ACM facility
- Deliver feedstock to the ACM facility using existing City Sanitation collection, rerouted from the City of Minot Landfill to Carbotura's site. No new fleet obligation; the change is a routing change
- Pay the Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) per ton delivered: $100/ton in Year 1, escalating 2.5%/yr — the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range
- Honor the 30-year CSA term, subject to standard force majeure and cure provisions
$100/ton is above the City of Minot Landfill's published MSW gate rate of $51/ton (effective 2025-01-01; City of Minot landfill rates). Carbotura claims no disposal saving. The case rests on four things: the Circular Royalty™, which exceeds the fee per ton from Year 2 and widens every year; no City or County capital; landfill airspace and site life preserved; and a manufacturing destination for the material.
§2Deployment Architecture
§2.1Phase Configuration Table
| Phase | TPD | Modules | TPY | Share of City landfill MSW intake (~82,000 t/yr) | Carbotura capital | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 100 | 1 | 36,500 | ~45% | $75M | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation |
| Phase Medium | 200 | 2 | 73,000 | ~89% | $130M total ($75M + $55M) | A later step, when the County chooses |
Module math: one 100 TPD ACM module per 100 TPD. The first module carries the shared site infrastructure ($75M); the second module is $55M. Intake basis: about 82,000 t/yr MSW plus about 68,800 t/yr inert, from six counties (estimated from a vendor case study of the City landfill, undated, written after the 2011 flood; retrieved 2026-11-10). 365 operating days.
§2.2Capital Structure
No City or County capital. No deployment debt on public books. No operating liability after commercial operation. The counterparty's financial obligation under the CSA is the per-ton Beneficiation Fee. Carbotura funds 100% of deployment capital — $75M at 100 TPD, $130M at 200 TPD — through institutional capital under separate SPV structuring. The City's and County's general funds, debt capacity, bonding authority and credit ratings are unaffected.
§2.3Feedstock Stream Coverage by Phase
| Stream | Phase Initial | Phase Medium | Access Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential material collected by City Sanitation (twice weekly) | ✓ | ✓ | City-controlled |
| Commercial material now delivered to the City of Minot Landfill | ✓ | ✓ | Terms to confirm |
| Material from the other counties that deliver to the City landfill | ✓ | Conditional | |
| Bismarck / Grand Forks partnerships | Possible later addition · separate agreement · not sized |
§2.4Site Candidate Analysis
Three candidate areas within Ward County and the US-2 / US-52 corridor. None is verified and no parcel has been identified. Minot's zoning ordinance (March 2020 revision) names its industrial districts M1, M2 and M3; district fit is confirmed at the Deployment Study with geotechnical, zoning and environmental review.
The North Minot US-2 Industrial Corridor (P1) is the working preference: (a) US-2 frontage for inbound feedstock from any Ward County origin; (b) industrial districts consistent with a manufacturing use; (c) room for a second module if the County chooses Phase Medium. P2 (near the City of Minot Landfill on 37th Ave SW) is favored if haul minimization drives selection. P3 is favored if acreage flexibility matters most.
Complete Site Candidate Matrix
| Priority | Zone | Acreage | Zoning | Land Authority | Co-location Advantage | Key Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | North Minot US-2 Industrial Corridor | To be confirmed by the Deployment Study | M1 / M2 (to confirm) | City of Minot + private (to be confirmed by the Deployment Study) | US-2 frontage; central to feedstock origins | No parcel identified; confirm at Deployment Study |
| P2 | Near the City of Minot Landfill (37th Ave SW) | To be confirmed by the Deployment Study | Industrial (to confirm) | City of Minot / private (to be confirmed by the Deployment Study) | Short haul from current delivery point | No parcel identified; zoning compatibility to confirm |
| P3 | South Minot / US-2 Corridor | To be confirmed by the Deployment Study | Mixed use / Industrial (to confirm) | Ward County / private (to be confirmed by the Deployment Study) | Greater acreage flexibility | Environmental review required (wetlands/aquifer proximity to be confirmed by the Deployment Study) |
§2.5Finding: Phase Initial Feedstock Sufficiency
Phase Initial 100 TPD (36,500 t/yr) is about 45% of the MSW the City of Minot Landfill reports receiving. It needs no partner jurisdiction and no inter-jurisdictional CSA. Phase Medium 200 TPD (73,000 t/yr) is about 89% of that intake and is a later, separate decision at the County's pace. The Minimum Annual Feedstock Volume (MAFV) is set in the CSA after the Deployment Study confirms tonnage.
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§3Economic Structure — Beneficiation Fee
Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee): $100/ton in Year 1, escalating 2.5%/yr — the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range.
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Minot Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) — Year 1 | $100 / ton | the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range |
| Annual escalator | 2.5% / year | Carbotura standard |
| Programme range (reference) | $100–$150 / ton | Carbotura standard parameters |
| City of Minot Landfill — published MSW gate rate | $51 / ton | Verified · minotnd.gov, effective 2025-01-01 |
| City of Minot Landfill — published inert gate rate | $37 / ton | Verified · same source |
$100/ton is above the City of Minot Landfill's published MSW gate rate of $51/ton (effective 2025-01-01). Carbotura claims no disposal saving. The fee pays for Total Material Conversion; the value to Minot comes from the Circular Royalty™ (§4), no City or County capital, preserved landfill airspace, and a manufacturing destination for the material.
| Scenario | TPY | Fee / ton, Year 1 | Annual Beneficiation Fee, Year 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial (100 TPD) | 36,500 | $100.00 | $3.65M |
| Phase Medium (200 TPD) | 73,000 | $100.00 | $7.29M |
Illustrative. Each scenario is shown as if run from the first fee payment at that scale; the fee is invoiced monthly in arrears for the previous month's delivered tonnage. Final schedule confirms at CSA execution after the Deployment Study confirms tonnage.
§4Circular Royalty™
Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Base royalty rate (Year 1) | 120% of the current-year Beneficiation Fee |
| Annual royalty rate escalator | +1 percentage point per year |
| Beneficiation Fee escalator | 2.5% / year |
| Payment lag | 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of each Beneficiation Fee payment |
| Payment basis | Rolling monthly |
| CSA term | 30 years from Phase Initial commercial operation |
| Pre-royalty period | Months 1–12 (Year 1) |
"Gross cost displacement and Circular Royalty™ cash flow are quantified separately.
"At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis."
"Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
In Minot no cost displacement is quantified: the $100/ton fee is above the $51/ton landfill gate rate, so this proposal shows the fee and the royalty only.
Fiscal Period Distinction
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative. From Year 2 the royalty exceeds the fee per ton, and the gap widens every year.
30-Year Fiscal Schedule — Full Detail
| Year | Fee paid / ton | Royalty received / ton | 100 TPD fee | 100 TPD royalty | 200 TPD fee | 200 TPD royalty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100.00 | $0.00 (pre-royalty) | $3.65M | $0 | $7.29M | $0 |
| 2 | $102.50 | $120.00 | $3.74M | $4.38M | $7.48M | $8.76M |
| 3 | $105.06 | $124.02 | $3.83M | $4.53M | $7.67M | $9.05M |
| 5 | $110.38 | $132.46 | $4.03M | $4.83M | $8.06M | $9.67M |
| 10 | $124.89 | $155.96 | $4.56M | $5.69M | $9.12M | $11.38M |
| 15 | $141.30 | $183.34 | $5.16M | $6.69M | $10.32M | $13.38M |
| 20 | $159.87 | $215.23 | $5.84M | $7.86M | $11.67M | $15.71M |
| 25 | $180.87 | $252.34 | $6.60M | $9.21M | $13.20M | $18.42M |
| 30 | $204.64 | $295.48 | $7.47M | $10.79M | $14.94M | $21.57M |
| 30-year gross | — | — | ~$160.2M | ~$207.3M | ~$320.5M | ~$414.7M |
Royalty received, receipts basis: paid 13 months in arrears; Year n = M(n−1) × BF(n−1). Illustrative. Fee and royalty are separate gross amounts and are never netted.
§5Risk Register
| # | Risk | Key Driver | Bearer | Mitigation | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fee above the local gate rate | $100/ton fee vs. $51/ton City landfill MSW gate rate | Counterparty | Stated openly; no disposal saving claimed. The Circular Royalty™ exceeds the fee per ton from Year 2 and the gap widens every year | Medium |
| 2 | Technology performance | MCR operating performance vs. production specification | Carbotura (finances, owns and operates) | Verification chain as design intent: component certified → module certified by an Authorized Systems Integrator (ASI) → Master Authorized Systems Integrator (MASI) integration, test and burn-in at FAT → SAT and SIT certify commercial operation | Low |
| 3 | Timeline slippage | Deployment Study, permitting, financing, deployment | Both | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation, with cure provisions in the CSA | Medium |
| 4 | Competing landfill capacity | Two permitted MSW landfills in Ward County: the City of Minot Landfill (NDDEQ permit 0272) and McDaniel Landfill Inc, Sawyer (NDDEQ permit 0326) | Counterparty (delivery obligation) | MAFV and delivery terms set in the CSA; City Sanitation collection routed to the ACM site | Medium |
| 5 | Competitive procurement | Other operators may approach the City or County | Both | RPT-aligned position; 30-year CSA term | Low |
| 6 | PFAS regulatory | NDDEQ monitors PFAS (including landfill leachate since 2018) but has no state PFAS rule; federal rules may change | Counterparty (landfill exposure); Carbotura (feedstock spec) | PFAS fully broken down in downstream processing at 1,800–3,000°C; feedstock spec in CSA | Low |
§6Timeline
| Milestone | Timing | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Engagement and LOI / MOU | When the City and County choose | No regulatory deadline applies |
| Deployment Study | After LOI / MOU | Tonnage confirmation, geotechnical, zoning, permit framework |
| CSA execution | After the Term Sheet phase | Council authorization |
| Permit issuance | NDDEQ process | Pre-application engagement at the Deployment Study |
| Phase Initial commercial operation (100 TPD) | 12–24 months from permit issuance | Feedstock delivery begins; Beneficiation Fee invoiced monthly in arrears |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | 13 months after Carbotura's receipt of the first Beneficiation Fee payment | Rolling monthly thereafter, per ton, for the life of the CSA |
| Phase Medium (200 TPD) | A later step, when the County chooses | Second module ($55M Carbotura capital) |
| CSA term end | 30 years | From Phase Initial commercial operation |
No calendar targets. No regulatory hard deadline applies, and this proposal sets no dated milestones. The schedule runs from the City's and County's decisions: 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation for Phase Initial, and Phase Medium whenever the County chooses.
§7Community Value Stack
County fiscal effects (fee paid, royalty received, landfill airspace) and regional economic effects (employment) are distinct categories — never combined into a single benefit line. §7.1 is treasury effects. §7.2 is regional economic effects.
§7.1County Fiscal Effects
- Beneficiation Fee paid (outflow): $3.65M in Year 1 at 100 TPD; $7.29M at 200 TPD; escalates 2.5%/yr.
- Circular Royalty™ received (inflow): $0 in Year 1 (13-month lag); $4.38M in Year 2, $5.69M in Year 10 and $10.79M in Year 30 at 100 TPD; $8.76M, $11.38M and $21.57M at 200 TPD.
- Disposal cost: no saving claimed. The $100/ton fee is above the $51/ton landfill gate rate.
- Landfill airspace: 36,500 t/yr (100 TPD) or 73,000 t/yr (200 TPD) stays out of the City landfill's permitted cells. Cell 7 (approved January 2023, $2.36M) was expected to last about 5–7 years; diversion stretches it. The City bought 320 acres in 2017 for $4M to extend site life 60+ years.
- Capital obligation: $0.
§7.2Regional Economic Effects
These flow to the Minot regional economy (Ward, McHenry and Renville counties, 75,694 people) — not to the County treasury.
| Phase | Direct jobs | Indirect jobs (~3×) |
|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial (100 TPD) | ~25 | ~75 |
| Phase Medium (200 TPD) | ~50 | ~150 |
Estimated from standard per-TPD scaling; indirect roughly 3×.
Carbotura's capital investment of $75M (Phase Initial) or $130M (Phase Medium) sits in the host jurisdiction; its property-tax treatment depends on North Dakota law and any agreement reached.
§8Why This Works in Minot
Volume fit. The City of Minot Landfill reports about 82,000 t/yr of MSW. Phase Initial (36,500 t/yr) is about 45% of it and Phase Medium (73,000 t/yr) about 89%. Neither needs a partner jurisdiction.
Landfill life. The City approved Cell 7 in January 2023 ($2.36M, about 5–7 years) and bought 320 acres in 2017 for $4M to extend site life 60+ years. Every ton converted instead of landfilled keeps permitted airspace available for what cannot be converted.
The royalty. The fee is above the gate rate, and this proposal says so. The Circular Royalty™ is received from Year 2 at $120/ton, exceeds the fee per ton from then on, and the gap widens every year of the 30-year CSA term.
No public capital. Carbotura funds $75M at 100 TPD and $130M at 200 TPD. Ward County (68,233 people, 2025 estimate, down about 2.1% since 2020 per the Minot Daily News) takes on no debt.
A manufacturing destination. Delivered material becomes Circular Materials, not landfill volume. North Dakota has no advanced-recycling or manufacturing-classification statute; solid waste rules are NDCC 23.1-08 and NDAC 33.1-20. Manufacturing classification is pursued under the RPT (§1.0); nothing is contingent on it.
An honest market picture. Ward County has two permitted MSW landfills, the City of Minot Landfill (NDDEQ permit 0272) and McDaniel Landfill Inc, Sawyer (NDDEQ permit 0326). The proposal does not rely on any claim of a single disposal option.
★Basis of Presentation
This document defines the commercial structure, deployment architecture, fiscal terms, and community value of the proposed 30-year Circular Supply Agreement with the City of Minot / Ward County, North Dakota. Each parameter is classified by confidence tier. Final values confirm at the Deployment Study.
| Parameter | Value Applied | Basis | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee — Year 1 | $100/ton, +2.5%/yr | the bottom of the standard $100–$150/ton range | Locked |
| City of Minot Landfill gate rates | MSW $51/ton · inert $37/ton | minotnd.gov/691/Landfill-Rates, effective 2025-01-01 | Verified |
| City landfill intake | ~82,000 t/yr MSW + ~68,800 t/yr inert, six counties | Estimated from a vendor case study of the City landfill (undated, written after the 2011 flood; retrieved 2026-11-10) | Estimated |
| Phase Initial | 100 TPD / 36,500 TPY (~45% of MSW intake) · $75M | Architect decision 2026-11-10 | Locked |
| Phase Medium | 200 TPD / 73,000 TPY (~89%) · $130M total · when the County chooses | Architect decision 2026-11-10 | Locked |
| Royalty formula and parameters | 120% base · +1pp/yr · 13-month lag · rolling monthly | Carbotura standard parameters | Locked |
| Timing | 12–24 months from permit issuance to commercial operation | Carbotura standard deployment range; no calendar dates | Estimated |
| Employment | ~25 / ~50 direct (100 / 200 TPD); indirect ~3× | Standard per-TPD scaling | Estimated |
| Population | Ward County 68,233 (2025 est.; 68,427 in 2024); City of Minot ~47,300; metro 75,694 | Minot Daily News, 2026-03-26 | Verified |
| Site candidates (P1, P2, P3) | Three corridor areas; P1 North Minot preferred; no parcel identified | Geographic review; zoning districts M1 / M2 / M3 (Minot zoning ordinance, March 2020 revision) | Provisional |
| Landfill operators | City of Minot Landfill, 4450 37th Ave SW (City Public Works, Solid Waste Management Division; NDDEQ permit 0272) · McDaniel Landfill Inc, Sawyer (NDDEQ permit 0326) | minotnd.gov/288/Landfill · NDDEQ active MSW landfills | Verified |
Unresolved Data Gaps
- Commercial collection terms in Minot — not verified; confirmed at the Deployment Study.
- Date and basis of the reported ~82,000 t/yr intake figure — confirmed with City Public Works.
- Candidate parcels — none identified.
- North Dakota NDDEQ permit timeline — pre-application engagement at the Deployment Study.
Confidence tiers: Locked = Architect-decided or contractually standard Verified = sourced to named public record Estimated = Carbotura-modeled or reported with stated basis Provisional = pre-Term Sheet placeholder.